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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 26.6 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton 2–1 Plymouth | 2.98–0.47 | 87% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Birmingham 0–0 Bristol City | 0.11–0.90 | 4% · 40% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 55% |
| Cardiff 0–2 Leicester | 0.41–2.13 | 6% · 16% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Coventry 2–2 Swansea | 2.50–1.10 | 68% · 17% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 68% |
| Huddersfield 1–2 Middlesbrough | 0.78–1.43 | 20% · 27% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Hull City 3–2 Blackburn | 1.68–0.83 | 58% · 24% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Ipswich 0–0 QPR | 0.46–0.39 | 27% · 51% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Millwall 1–0 Norwich | 2.21–0.62 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Preston 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.53–0.51 | 28% · 46% · 27% | Close call, Sheffield Wednesday won |
| Rotherham 1–1 Sunderland | 1.71–0.30 | 73% · 21% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Rotherham had 73% |
| Watford 1–1 Stoke City | 1.42–0.82 | 51% · 27% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 51% |
| West Brom 1–0 Leeds | 1.36–0.96 | 46% · 28% · 26% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.