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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 29.0 xG (1.21 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland 2–0 Preston | 0.50–0.54 | 26% · 46% · 29% | Close call, Sunderland won |
| Blackburn 2–2 Rotherham | 3.15–1.38 | 72% · 14% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 72% |
| Bristol City 0–1 Millwall | 0.56–0.66 | 26% · 41% · 32% | Close call, Millwall won |
| Leeds 3–0 Birmingham | 1.36–0.68 | 53% · 28% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Leicester 4–1 Huddersfield | 1.98–1.11 | 58% · 22% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Middlesbrough 1–3 Coventry | 1.54–2.22 | 27% · 20% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Norwich 1–1 Southampton | 0.79–2.34 | 11% · 17% · 72% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 72% |
| Plymouth 3–3 Watford | 1.85–1.55 | 45% · 22% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 1–2 Cardiff | 0.61–0.52 | 31% · 43% · 25% | Close call, Cardiff won |
| Stoke City 0–0 Ipswich | 0.35–0.60 | 18% · 47% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 1–0 West Brom | 0.67–1.90 | 12% · 21% · 67% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Sheffield Wednesday 3–1 Hull City | 1.23–0.94 | 43% · 29% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.