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10 of 12 matches with xG: 23 goals from 23.3 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds 1–0 Norwich | 1.52–0.45 | 64% · 25% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Millwall 1–1 Preston | 1.77–1.30 | 48% · 23% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sunderland 3–1 Stoke City | 1.32–1.14 | 41% · 27% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| QPR 1–1 Huddersfield | 0.37–1.91 | 6% · 19% · 75% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 75% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Watford | 1.35–1.00 | 45% · 27% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 0–0 Blackburn | 0.55–0.25 | 35% · 51% · 14% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ipswich 4–3 Rotherham | 1.77–1.64 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Plymouth 0–3 West Brom | 0.10–2.28 | 1% · 11% · 87% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Southampton 1–2 Hull City | 1.40–1.60 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Birmingham 0–1 Middlesbrough | 0.42–1.18 | 13% · 32% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.