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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 27.6 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 0–1 Leeds | 0.42–1.06 | 15% · 34% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Blackburn 1–2 QPR | 1.46–1.47 | 37% · 25% · 38% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Huddersfield 4–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.67–0.46 | 67% · 23% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Hull City 1–0 Millwall | 0.45–0.38 | 27% · 51% · 22% | Close call, Hull City won |
| Norwich 2–1 Coventry | 1.15–1.08 | 37% · 29% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Preston 3–2 Ipswich | 0.69–2.76 | 7% · 13% · 80% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Rotherham 0–2 Southampton | 0.34–1.22 | 10% · 31% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Stoke City 0–5 Leicester | 0.87–3.42 | 6% · 10% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Swansea 0–1 Plymouth | 2.06–0.92 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| Watford 0–1 Cardiff | 1.14–0.47 | 53% · 32% · 15% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
| West Brom 1–0 Birmingham | 0.71–0.68 | 32% · 38% · 30% | Close call, West Brom won |
| Middlesbrough 1–1 Sunderland | 1.64–1.05 | 51% · 25% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 51% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.