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12 of 12 matches with xG: 41 goals from 28.6 xG (1.44 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Birmingham | 1.52–1.74 | 34% · 23% · 43% | Close call, Sheffield Wednesday won |
| Ipswich 2–2 West Brom | 1.90–0.40 | 74% · 19% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 74% |
| Blackburn 3–1 Stoke City | 1.71–1.04 | 53% · 24% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Cardiff 0–2 Preston | 0.69–0.62 | 32% · 40% · 28% | Close call, Preston won |
| Hull City 0–1 Swansea | 0.56–0.75 | 24% · 40% · 36% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Leeds 3–0 Rotherham | 2.70–0.28 | 88% · 10% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Middlesbrough 1–2 Bristol City | 1.66–1.73 | 37% · 23% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| QPR 2–2 Norwich | 0.89–0.95 | 32% · 32% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 5–3 Huddersfield | 1.52–1.21 | 44% · 25% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Sunderland 3–1 Plymouth | 0.98–0.39 | 49% · 36% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Watford 1–2 Leicester | 1.12–1.43 | 30% · 26% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Coventry 2–1 Millwall | 1.90–0.87 | 62% · 22% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.