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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 29.5 xG (1.19 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 1–0 Blackburn | 1.94–0.55 | 71% · 20% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Leicester 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.89–0.54 | 70% · 20% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Norwich 4–2 Watford | 1.96–1.49 | 49% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Rotherham 1–2 Hull City | 0.56–1.45 | 14% · 27% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Swansea 0–4 Leeds | 0.56–1.77 | 11% · 22% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Bristol City 3–1 Southampton | 1.17–1.66 | 27% · 24% · 49% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| West Brom 2–0 Cardiff | 1.86–0.46 | 71% · 20% · 8% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Huddersfield 1–0 Sunderland | 1.44–0.70 | 55% · 27% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Plymouth 2–2 Coventry | 1.12–2.57 | 15% · 17% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 69% |
| Preston 2–1 Middlesbrough | 1.17–0.92 | 42% · 30% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Stoke City 1–0 QPR | 0.61–0.44 | 33% · 45% · 22% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Millwall 0–4 Ipswich | 0.78–1.87 | 15% · 22% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.