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12 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 23.4 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth 1–0 Leicester | 0.24–1.41 | 6% · 26% · 68% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| Leeds 0–1 Blackburn | 1.42–0.61 | 57% · 27% · 16% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Birmingham 3–0 Coventry | 1.37–0.58 | 56% · 28% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Bristol City 1–1 Huddersfield | 0.54–1.57 | 13% · 25% · 63% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 63% |
| Hull City 3–0 QPR | 1.13–1.31 | 32% · 27% · 41% | Close call, Hull City won |
| Ipswich 1–1 Middlesbrough | 2.03–1.32 | 54% · 21% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 54% |
| Millwall 3–1 Cardiff | 1.36–0.32 | 64% · 28% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Preston 0–1 Norwich | 0.95–0.68 | 40% · 34% · 25% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Stoke City | 1.57–0.61 | 61% · 25% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 61% |
| Southampton 3–2 Watford | 1.85–0.84 | 61% · 22% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Swansea 1–0 Rotherham | 0.82–0.13 | 51% · 43% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 0–1 Sunderland | 0.28–0.41 | 17% · 56% · 27% | Close call, Sunderland won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.