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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 27.9 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall 1–0 Leicester | 0.64–0.90 | 25% · 36% · 40% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Plymouth 1–1 QPR | 0.47–1.61 | 10% · 24% · 66% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 66% |
| Preston 4–1 Huddersfield | 2.38–0.74 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 Norwich | 1.27–1.49 | 32% · 25% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 2–1 Coventry | 1.41–1.50 | 36% · 25% · 40% | Close call, Southampton won |
| Leeds 0–0 Sunderland | 0.56–0.21 | 37% · 52% · 11% | Draw in line with xG |
| Birmingham 0–1 Cardiff | 0.63–0.97 | 23% · 35% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Bristol City 5–0 Blackburn | 3.24–0.39 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Hull City 2–2 Middlesbrough | 1.66–1.13 | 50% · 24% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ipswich 0–0 Watford | 0.77–0.24 | 46% · 43% · 11% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 3–0 Stoke City | 1.88–0.31 | 76% · 19% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 2–0 Rotherham | 3.09–0.39 | 89% · 8% · 2% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.