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12 of 12 matches with xG: 21 goals from 27.3 xG (0.77 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham 0–1 Plymouth | 0.36–1.97 | 6% · 18% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Norwich 1–0 Ipswich | 0.54–0.81 | 23% · 39% · 39% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
| Blackburn 0–0 Southampton | 0.96–1.06 | 32% · 31% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 1–3 Hull City | 0.54–1.53 | 13% · 25% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Coventry 2–1 Leeds | 1.80–1.69 | 41% · 22% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Huddersfield 1–0 Millwall | 1.54–1.05 | 49% · 26% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Leicester 2–1 Birmingham | 1.45–0.59 | 58% · 27% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Middlesbrough 2–0 Swansea | 1.16–0.47 | 53% · 32% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| QPR 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.00–1.74 | 22% · 24% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Stoke City 2–2 West Brom | 2.20–1.35 | 57% · 20% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 57% |
| Sunderland 0–0 Bristol City | 1.67–0.68 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Sunderland had 61% |
| Watford 0–0 Preston | 0.59–0.56 | 29% · 43% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.