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12 of 12 matches with xG: 36 goals from 33.4 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester 3–1 Norwich | 2.33–1.02 | 67% · 18% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Birmingham 1–0 Preston | 1.42–0.23 | 68% · 26% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Coventry 1–2 Cardiff | 1.50–1.18 | 45% · 26% · 30% | Close call, Cardiff won |
| Middlesbrough 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.44–0.41 | 82% · 13% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Plymouth 0–1 Bristol City | 0.42–1.34 | 12% · 28% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Rotherham 2–1 Millwall | 0.90–2.10 | 15% · 20% · 65% | Won against the xG: Rotherham |
| Stoke City 1–1 Huddersfield | 1.25–0.67 | 50% · 30% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 50% |
| Sunderland 1–5 Blackburn | 1.54–3.41 | 14% · 13% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Swansea 0–1 QPR | 1.44–1.30 | 40% · 26% · 34% | Close call, QPR won |
| West Brom 2–2 Watford | 1.12–1.51 | 28% · 26% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ipswich 3–2 Southampton | 0.95–1.34 | 27% · 28% · 46% | Won against the xG: Ipswich |
| Leeds 3–1 Hull City | 2.98–0.56 | 85% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.