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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 31.4 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 1–0 Leicester | 1.07–2.06 | 19% · 21% · 60% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Millwall 1–1 West Brom | 1.43–1.14 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 0–2 Sunderland | 0.28–3.07 | 2% · 7% · 91% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Huddersfield 1–3 Coventry | 1.56–1.14 | 47% · 25% · 28% | Won against the xG: Coventry |
| Hull City 0–2 Stoke City | 0.70–1.39 | 19% · 28% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Norwich 2–1 Plymouth | 2.20–1.20 | 60% · 20% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Preston 3–0 Rotherham | 2.25–0.44 | 79% · 15% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| QPR 2–1 Birmingham | 1.72–0.92 | 56% · 24% · 20% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Swansea | 1.74–1.15 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 51% |
| Southampton 1–1 Middlesbrough | 2.31–0.51 | 78% · 15% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 78% |
| Blackburn 0–1 Ipswich | 0.63–0.75 | 27% · 39% · 34% | Close call, Ipswich won |
| Watford 2–2 Leeds | 0.70–1.00 | 25% · 33% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.