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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 29.8 xG (0.91 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea 2–0 Cardiff | 2.70–0.67 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Birmingham 0–1 Watford | 2.12–1.48 | 52% · 21% · 27% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Ipswich 6–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 3.73–0.70 | 90% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Middlesbrough 0–0 Blackburn | 1.06–0.78 | 42% · 32% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 0–1 Preston | 0.56–1.06 | 19% · 33% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Rotherham 0–0 Huddersfield | 0.51–1.21 | 16% · 31% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 54% |
| Stoke City 0–3 Norwich | 1.03–2.34 | 15% · 18% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Sunderland 0–0 QPR | 0.21–0.86 | 9% · 41% · 50% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 50% |
| West Brom 2–0 Bristol City | 1.14–0.73 | 45% · 31% · 23% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Leeds 2–0 Millwall | 1.54–0.58 | 61% · 25% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Leicester 5–0 Southampton | 2.06–0.33 | 79% · 17% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Coventry 2–3 Hull City | 0.56–1.87 | 10% · 21% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.