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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 29.4 xG (1.26 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Leeds | 0.80–1.98 | 14% · 21% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Cardiff 2–1 Ipswich | 2.44–0.59 | 78% · 15% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Blackburn 1–1 Plymouth | 1.09–2.50 | 15% · 17% · 68% | Draw against the xG: Plymouth had 68% |
| Hull City 2–2 Leicester | 1.20–2.03 | 22% · 21% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 57% |
| Millwall 1–0 Birmingham | 0.84–1.11 | 27% · 31% · 42% | Close call, Millwall won |
| Norwich 5–0 Rotherham | 1.55–0.04 | 77% · 22% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Preston 1–2 Stoke City | 0.47–1.39 | 12% · 28% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| QPR 0–2 Middlesbrough | 0.52–0.47 | 28% · 47% · 25% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| Southampton 4–2 Sunderland | 3.20–0.60 | 87% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Watford 1–2 Coventry | 0.93–1.17 | 29% · 30% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Huddersfield 1–4 West Brom | 1.66–1.73 | 37% · 23% · 40% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Bristol City 1–0 Swansea | 0.50–0.62 | 24% · 44% · 32% | Close call, Bristol City won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.