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12 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 28.4 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 1–1 Millwall | 0.65–0.32 | 38% · 46% · 16% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coventry 5–0 Rotherham | 2.04–0.96 | 62% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Hull City 1–1 Birmingham | 1.41–0.38 | 63% · 27% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Hull City had 63% |
| Leeds 1–0 Stoke City | 1.36–0.44 | 60% · 28% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Sunderland 0–1 Leicester | 0.61–1.15 | 20% · 32% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Plymouth | 1.65–0.64 | 62% · 24% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Ipswich 3–2 Bristol City | 2.53–0.92 | 72% · 16% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Middlesbrough 3–1 Norwich | 1.67–0.97 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Watford 1–1 Swansea | 1.94–1.81 | 42% · 21% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 1–0 Huddersfield | 0.68–1.22 | 21% · 30% · 49% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
| QPR 2–2 West Brom | 2.26–0.15 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 86% |
| Southampton 3–0 Preston | 2.55–0.07 | 91% · 9% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.