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12 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 23.2 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom 2–1 Coventry | 0.37–1.77 | 7% · 21% · 72% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Leeds | 1.16–1.92 | 23% · 22% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 55% |
| Bristol City 0–1 Cardiff | 0.70–0.33 | 40% · 44% · 16% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
| Birmingham 3–4 Southampton | 0.79–2.35 | 11% · 17% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Leicester 1–2 QPR | 0.97–0.99 | 34% · 31% · 35% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Millwall 1–0 Watford | 0.59–0.70 | 27% · 40% · 33% | Close call, Millwall won |
| Norwich 1–0 Sunderland | 1.27–0.58 | 53% · 30% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Plymouth 0–2 Ipswich | 0.51–1.02 | 18% · 34% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Preston 0–0 Hull City | 1.06–1.10 | 34% · 29% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rotherham 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.37–1.48 | 9% · 26% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Stoke City 2–0 Middlesbrough | 1.15–0.86 | 42% · 30% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Swansea 2–1 Blackburn | 0.60–0.53 | 31% · 43% · 26% | Close call, Swansea won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.