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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 27.8 xG (1.26 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry 0–3 Preston | 0.82–1.41 | 22% · 27% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Leeds 3–1 Leicester | 1.43–1.47 | 37% · 25% · 39% | Close call, Leeds won |
| Hull City 1–1 West Brom | 0.56–0.96 | 21% · 35% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 1–1 Norwich | 1.03–0.67 | 43% · 33% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 2–1 Stoke City | 0.54–1.95 | 9% · 20% · 71% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
| Ipswich 3–1 Birmingham | 2.63–0.51 | 83% · 12% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Middlesbrough 0–2 Plymouth | 0.55–1.71 | 11% · 23% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| QPR 2–1 Rotherham | 1.14–0.93 | 40% · 30% · 30% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Bristol City | 1.19–0.48 | 54% · 31% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Southampton 1–2 Millwall | 1.56–1.18 | 46% · 25% · 29% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Sunderland 1–2 Swansea | 1.02–2.23 | 16% · 19% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Watford 1–2 Huddersfield | 1.05–0.77 | 41% · 32% · 26% | Won against the xG: Huddersfield |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.