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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 34.2 xG (0.94 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 2–1 Preston | 1.67–0.93 | 55% · 24% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Oxford United 1–1 Bristol City | 1.01–0.58 | 45% · 34% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 2–1 West Brom | 1.68–1.97 | 33% · 22% · 45% | Close call, Plymouth won |
| Watford 0–1 Norwich | 0.71–2.57 | 8% · 14% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Derby 0–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.86–0.91 | 32% · 33% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Hull City 1–2 Stoke City | 1.73–1.14 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Leeds 7–0 Cardiff | 5.73–0.05 | 100% · 0% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Millwall 2–1 QPR | 0.61–0.79 | 26% · 38% · 36% | Close call, Millwall won |
| Portsmouth 0–0 Burnley | 1.25–0.78 | 47% · 29% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Luton | 2.78–0.43 | 86% · 11% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 86% |
| Swansea 0–2 Coventry | 0.27–2.38 | 3% · 12% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Middlesbrough 2–3 Sunderland | 1.32–2.05 | 24% · 21% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.