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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 24.8 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry 1–0 QPR | 1.43–0.84 | 51% · 27% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Derby 0–0 Oxford United | 0.85–0.25 | 49% · 41% · 10% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portsmouth 2–1 Cardiff | 1.52–0.96 | 50% · 26% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Watford 0–4 Leeds | 0.59–2.15 | 9% · 18% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Norwich 0–1 Preston | 0.72–0.99 | 26% · 33% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City | 1.44–0.36 | 65% · 26% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Plymouth 5–1 Millwall | 2.56–0.84 | 74% · 15% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Swansea 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.18–0.90 | 7% · 40% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Burnley 2–0 Hull City | 1.46–0.35 | 65% · 26% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Sunderland 2–0 Luton | 1.24–0.31 | 61% · 30% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Sheffield Utd 3–1 Middlesbrough | 2.42–1.25 | 63% · 18% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| West Brom 0–2 Blackburn | 0.54–0.67 | 25% · 42% · 33% | Close call, Blackburn won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.