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12 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 28.8 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR 4–0 Derby | 0.88–0.56 | 41% · 37% · 22% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Cardiff 1–1 Bristol City | 1.69–1.10 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Cardiff had 51% |
| Oxford United 0–2 Portsmouth | 1.42–1.99 | 27% · 22% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Preston 0–0 Burnley | 0.24–1.00 | 9% · 36% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Burnley had 55% |
| Blackburn 2–0 Plymouth | 2.21–0.92 | 67% · 19% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Hull City 1–1 Norwich | 0.65–1.42 | 17% · 27% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Norwich had 56% |
| Luton 0–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.63–2.14 | 30% · 21% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Middlesbrough 0–1 Watford | 0.91–1.57 | 22% · 25% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Millwall 1–1 West Brom | 0.72–0.45 | 38% · 42% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Coventry | 1.56–1.51 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Close call, Coventry won |
| Stoke City 3–1 Swansea | 0.90–0.87 | 34% · 33% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Leeds 2–1 Sunderland | 1.95–0.50 | 72% · 19% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.