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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 34.2 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 2–1 Middlesbrough | 2.33–1.35 | 59% · 19% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Burnley 4–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.46–1.16 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Derby 0–1 Millwall | 0.40–2.40 | 5% · 13% · 82% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Plymouth 1–1 Cardiff | 0.98–1.43 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sunderland 0–1 Hull City | 1.13–0.92 | 40% · 30% · 29% | Close call, Hull City won |
| Coventry 2–1 Preston | 1.78–0.97 | 56% · 23% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Norwich 4–2 Stoke City | 2.87–1.65 | 63% · 17% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Portsmouth 2–1 QPR | 1.73–0.69 | 62% · 23% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Swansea 3–0 Blackburn | 2.11–0.23 | 82% · 15% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 2–0 Oxford United | 2.72–0.27 | 88% · 9% · 2% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Watford 2–0 Luton | 2.42–0.69 | 76% · 16% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Sheffield Utd 1–3 Leeds | 1.22–1.28 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.