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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 25.5 xG (0.94 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Sunderland | 1.13–1.05 | 37% · 29% · 33% | Close call, Sunderland won |
| Blackburn 1–1 Norwich | 1.06–0.56 | 47% · 33% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leeds 1–1 West Brom | 1.29–0.77 | 49% · 29% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 2–3 Coventry | 1.09–2.64 | 13% · 16% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Luton 1–0 Portsmouth | 0.74–0.46 | 38% · 41% · 21% | Close call, Luton won |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Derby | 1.00–0.20 | 56% · 36% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| QPR 1–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.40–0.91 | 48% · 27% · 24% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
| Stoke City 0–0 Watford | 0.61–0.51 | 31% · 44% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 1–2 Burnley | 1.26–1.43 | 33% · 26% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Hull City 2–0 Plymouth | 2.52–0.23 | 87% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Millwall 0–2 Bristol City | 0.83–1.83 | 17% · 22% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Preston 0–0 Swansea | 1.54–0.47 | 64% · 25% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 64% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.