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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 30.4 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich 1–1 Oxford United | 1.51–0.40 | 65% · 25% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Norwich had 65% |
| Coventry 3–2 Stoke City | 0.91–2.16 | 15% · 19% · 66% | Won against the xG: Coventry |
| Watford 1–2 Millwall | 1.53–0.70 | 57% · 26% · 17% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Bristol City 1–1 Hull City | 2.41–1.02 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 68% |
| Burnley 4–0 Luton | 2.74–0.24 | 89% · 9% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Derby 2–1 Blackburn | 2.23–1.61 | 52% · 20% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Plymouth 0–3 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.26–1.59 | 6% · 23% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Preston | 1.44–0.30 | 67% · 26% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Sunderland 2–1 Cardiff | 2.45–0.50 | 80% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Swansea 1–0 Middlesbrough | 1.05–0.38 | 52% · 34% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 1–0 QPR | 0.86–1.07 | 29% · 31% · 40% | Close call, West Brom won |
| Portsmouth 1–0 Leeds | 0.66–2.36 | 9% · 16% · 75% | Won against the xG: Portsmouth |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.