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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 24.6 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 1–1 West Brom | 1.43–0.58 | 58% · 27% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Burnley had 58% |
| Cardiff 1–2 Luton | 0.77–0.99 | 27% · 33% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Derby 2–0 Coventry | 0.79–0.74 | 33% · 36% · 30% | Close call, Derby won |
| Middlesbrough 2–1 QPR | 1.16–1.04 | 38% · 29% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Sunderland 1–1 Preston | 2.11–0.79 | 68% · 19% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Sunderland had 68% |
| Norwich 2–3 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.49–1.93 | 30% · 22% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Sheffield Utd 1–1 Bristol City | 1.37–1.44 | 36% · 25% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portsmouth 1–2 Plymouth | 1.40–0.25 | 67% · 27% · 6% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| Hull City 2–1 Oxford United | 1.64–0.49 | 66% · 24% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Leeds 2–0 Millwall | 0.83–0.20 | 50% · 42% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Watford 1–0 Swansea | 0.58–0.67 | 27% · 41% · 32% | Close call, Watford won |
| Stoke City 1–0 Blackburn | 1.41–0.54 | 59% · 27% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.