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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 27.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 2–1 Norwich | 1.03–2.66 | 12% · 16% · 72% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Millwall 1–0 Stoke City | 1.16–0.70 | 47% · 31% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| QPR 2–2 Leeds | 0.78–1.37 | 21% · 28% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 51% |
| Blackburn 1–2 Cardiff | 0.48–0.74 | 21% · 41% · 38% | Close call, Cardiff won |
| Coventry 3–0 Sunderland | 2.86–0.44 | 86% · 10% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Luton 0–0 Middlesbrough | 2.46–0.24 | 86% · 11% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Luton had 86% |
| Oxford United 1–0 Watford | 0.49–1.33 | 14% · 29% · 58% | Won against the xG: Oxford United |
| Plymouth 2–3 Derby | 0.96–0.93 | 35% · 32% · 33% | Close call, Derby won |
| Preston 2–1 Portsmouth | 2.51–0.58 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Swansea 0–2 Burnley | 0.44–1.90 | 8% · 20% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| West Brom 1–1 Hull City | 0.99–0.25 | 54% · 37% · 9% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 54% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.29–1.14 | 40% · 27% · 33% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.