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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 27.7 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd 3–1 Coventry | 1.64–1.18 | 48% · 24% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Hull City 0–1 Luton | 0.68–0.69 | 30% · 39% · 31% | Close call, Luton won |
| Watford 0–0 Plymouth | 1.93–0.60 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 69% |
| Burnley 1–0 Bristol City | 1.90–0.29 | 77% · 18% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Cardiff 1–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.72–0.43 | 69% · 22% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Cardiff had 69% |
| Leeds 2–2 Swansea | 1.78–1.99 | 35% · 21% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Oxford United | 2.40–1.45 | 59% · 19% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Norwich 1–0 West Brom | 0.97–1.22 | 29% · 29% · 42% | Close call, Norwich won |
| Portsmouth 1–0 Blackburn | 0.31–0.45 | 18% · 54% · 28% | Close call, Portsmouth won |
| Stoke City 3–1 QPR | 1.53–0.54 | 62% · 25% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Sunderland 1–0 Millwall | 2.20–0.82 | 69% · 19% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Derby 2–0 Preston | 0.66–0.30 | 39% · 46% · 15% | Close call, Derby won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.