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12 of 12 matches with xG: 22 goals from 23.7 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 0–2 Middlesbrough | 0.42–0.92 | 16% · 37% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Coventry 1–2 Burnley | 1.50–1.63 | 35% · 24% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Luton 1–1 Leeds | 0.90–1.57 | 22% · 25% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 53% |
| West Brom 0–1 Sunderland | 1.71–0.23 | 75% · 21% · 4% | Won against the xG: Sunderland |
| Bristol City 2–1 Watford | 0.67–0.28 | 40% · 46% · 14% | Close call, Bristol City won |
| Millwall 2–1 Portsmouth | 1.30–0.63 | 53% · 29% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Oxford United 1–0 Sheffield Utd | 1.09–1.26 | 32% · 28% · 40% | Close call, Oxford United won |
| Plymouth 2–1 Norwich | 1.75–1.14 | 52% · 24% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Preston 1–1 Stoke City | 0.53–2.42 | 6% · 14% · 79% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 79% |
| QPR 0–0 Cardiff | 0.54–0.59 | 27% · 43% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Hull City | 1.05–0.63 | 45% · 33% · 22% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Swansea 1–0 Derby | 0.25–0.65 | 12% · 48% · 40% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.