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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 25.9 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 2–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.60–0.93 | 53% · 25% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 53% |
| Bristol City 2–1 West Brom | 0.65–1.89 | 12% · 21% · 67% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Norwich 0–0 Sunderland | 0.82–0.71 | 35% · 36% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Preston 2–2 Cardiff | 1.85–0.90 | 60% · 22% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 60% |
| Sheffield Utd 0–1 Millwall | 1.76–0.52 | 68% · 22% · 10% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Stoke City 1–1 Luton | 0.37–1.00 | 13% · 36% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Luton had 51% |
| Watford 1–0 Hull City | 0.63–0.63 | 30% · 41% · 30% | Close call, Watford won |
| Derby 0–0 Burnley | 0.92–0.78 | 37% · 34% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 0–1 Leeds | 1.13–1.01 | 38% · 30% · 32% | Close call, Leeds won |
| Oxford United 1–3 QPR | 0.60–1.38 | 16% · 28% · 56% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Swansea 3–0 Plymouth | 2.77–0.56 | 83% · 12% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Coventry 1–0 Portsmouth | 1.48–0.99 | 49% · 26% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.