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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 27.4 xG (0.91 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 2–1 Norwich | 0.94–1.39 | 25% · 27% · 47% | Won against the xG: Burnley |
| Leeds 2–1 Preston | 3.53–0.33 | 93% · 5% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Plymouth 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.83–0.63 | 37% · 37% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Cardiff 0–1 Stoke City | 1.52–1.04 | 48% · 26% · 26% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Luton 0–1 Blackburn | 0.74–0.40 | 40% · 42% · 18% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Millwall 1–0 Middlesbrough | 1.63–0.69 | 60% · 24% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Portsmouth 2–2 Derby | 1.82–1.43 | 47% · 23% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 1–1 Bristol City | 1.81–0.93 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 58% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Oxford United | 0.98–1.11 | 32% · 30% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Sunderland 0–1 Swansea | 0.67–0.90 | 26% · 35% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 2–1 Watford | 1.12–0.94 | 40% · 30% · 30% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Hull City 1–1 Coventry | 0.94–1.12 | 30% · 30% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.