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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 32.6 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby 0–1 Luton | 1.75–0.52 | 67% · 22% · 10% | Won against the xG: Luton |
| Blackburn 4–1 Millwall | 1.78–1.37 | 47% · 23% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Bristol City 2–1 Sunderland | 2.00–0.37 | 77% · 18% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Coventry 2–0 West Brom | 1.16–0.87 | 42% · 30% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Plymouth | 2.98–2.09 | 57% · 17% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Norwich 3–5 Portsmouth | 1.17–2.71 | 14% · 16% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Preston 1–2 QPR | 0.77–1.40 | 21% · 27% · 52% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Stoke City 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.05–1.05 | 35% · 30% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Swansea 1–0 Hull City | 1.39–0.56 | 57% · 28% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Watford 1–2 Burnley | 1.05–1.96 | 20% · 22% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Sheffield Utd 2–0 Cardiff | 1.50–0.83 | 53% · 26% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Oxford United 0–1 Leeds | 0.44–1.83 | 8% · 20% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.