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12 of 12 matches with xG: 38 goals from 34.7 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff 1–1 Oxford United | 0.99–0.07 | 60% · 37% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Cardiff had 60% |
| Hull City 2–1 Preston | 2.32–1.04 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Leeds 6–0 Stoke City | 3.43–0.59 | 89% · 8% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Luton 3–1 Bristol City | 1.37–0.70 | 53% · 28% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Millwall 3–1 Norwich | 1.80–0.35 | 73% · 20% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Plymouth 3–1 Coventry | 2.48–1.91 | 51% · 19% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Portsmouth 1–0 Watford | 3.19–0.65 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| QPR 1–2 Swansea | 0.30–2.11 | 4% · 16% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Middlesbrough | 3.56–2.12 | 65% · 15% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Sunderland 0–1 Blackburn | 0.81–0.29 | 46% · 42% · 12% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| West Brom 1–3 Derby | 0.90–0.88 | 34% · 33% · 33% | Close call, Derby won |
| Burnley 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 2.04–0.80 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.