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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 27.9 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City 0–2 Sheffield Utd | 0.73–2.08 | 12% · 19% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Luton 1–0 Coventry | 2.31–0.14 | 87% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| QPR 0–5 Burnley | 0.47–2.47 | 5% · 13% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Blackburn 2–1 Watford | 1.02–0.35 | 52% · 35% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Cardiff 0–0 West Brom | 1.42–1.47 | 36% · 25% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 0–1 Derby | 0.40–0.29 | 26% · 56% · 18% | Close call, Derby won |
| Middlesbrough 0–0 Norwich | 0.67–0.64 | 31% · 40% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Millwall 1–0 Swansea | 1.60–0.97 | 52% · 25% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Oxford United 2–0 Sunderland | 1.61–0.59 | 62% · 24% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Preston 1–2 Plymouth | 2.42–0.80 | 73% · 16% · 10% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Portsmouth | 1.54–0.46 | 64% · 25% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 64% |
| Leeds 4–0 Bristol City | 3.39–0.07 | 96% · 4% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.