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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 33.2 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth 2–2 Oxford United | 0.94–1.39 | 25% · 27% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Millwall 1–2 Norwich | 0.92–2.13 | 15% · 20% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Leicester | 1.17–2.53 | 16% · 17% · 67% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 67% |
| Ipswich 2–1 Birmingham | 1.89–0.46 | 72% · 20% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Watford 1–1 Charlton | 1.29–2.11 | 23% · 21% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Charlton had 56% |
| Derby 2–0 Stoke City | 2.39–0.30 | 84% · 13% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Blackburn 0–0 West Brom | 0.85–0.69 | 37% · 36% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Preston 1–1 QPR | 0.63–1.10 | 21% · 32% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 1–0 Sheffield Utd | 0.38–1.65 | 8% · 23% · 69% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Swansea 2–2 Middlesbrough | 2.16–3.13 | 26% · 16% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 58% |
| Hull City 0–0 Coventry | 0.77–0.47 | 39% · 40% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wrexham 1–5 Southampton | 1.28–2.61 | 17% · 17% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.