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12 of 12 matches with xG: 19 goals from 29.0 xG (0.65 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom 0–0 Millwall | 1.35–1.10 | 42% · 27% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 0–2 Ipswich | 0.87–1.97 | 16% · 21% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Coventry 0–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.33–0.65 | 75% · 16% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 75% |
| QPR 0–0 Bristol City | 0.59–0.83 | 24% · 38% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leicester 0–1 Swansea | 1.37–0.68 | 53% · 28% · 19% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Sheffield Utd 2–1 Hull City | 2.36–1.20 | 63% · 19% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Oxford United 2–0 Watford | 1.86–0.81 | 62% · 22% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth | 1.28–0.42 | 58% · 29% · 12% | Won against the xG: Portsmouth |
| Stoke City 1–1 Blackburn | 1.74–0.67 | 63% · 23% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 63% |
| Southampton 2–1 Derby | 1.73–0.91 | 57% · 24% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Charlton 1–2 Preston | 1.32–1.32 | 37% · 26% · 37% | Close call, Preston won |
| Birmingham 2–0 Wrexham | 1.57–0.08 | 77% · 22% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.