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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 29.2 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 1–1 Coventry | 1.04–1.49 | 26% · 26% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Derby 1–0 Oxford United | 1.03–0.67 | 43% · 33% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Millwall 2–0 QPR | 1.53–0.14 | 74% · 23% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Portsmouth 1–0 Leicester | 1.01–0.91 | 37% · 32% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Charlton | 0.86–1.26 | 25% · 29% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 1–2 Southampton | 1.19–1.19 | 36% · 28% · 36% | Close call, Southampton won |
| Watford 0–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.29–0.81 | 48% · 29% · 23% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
| Hull City 1–1 Birmingham | 0.93–0.45 | 46% · 37% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wrexham 2–0 Stoke City | 1.25–0.35 | 60% · 30% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Preston 0–2 West Brom | 1.29–1.66 | 30% · 24% · 46% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Bristol City 2–4 Norwich | 1.43–2.14 | 25% · 21% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Ipswich 2–2 Middlesbrough | 2.59–2.70 | 39% · 18% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.