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12 of 12 matches with xG: 39 goals from 36.1 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich 2–1 Derby | 1.54–1.20 | 45% · 25% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Oxford United 0–1 Wrexham | 0.80–1.28 | 23% · 29% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Coventry 5–1 Portsmouth | 3.26–0.10 | 95% · 5% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| QPR 1–2 Swansea | 1.55–2.61 | 22% · 18% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 3–0 Watford | 1.48–0.61 | 58% · 26% · 15% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Southampton 2–2 Bristol City | 1.97–0.74 | 66% · 21% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 66% |
| Stoke City 1–3 Millwall | 0.98–1.48 | 25% · 26% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Leicester 2–2 Hull City | 3.06–1.46 | 70% · 15% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 70% |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.82–0.51 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Charlton 1–2 Ipswich | 0.33–1.87 | 6% · 19% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Birmingham 2–1 Preston | 1.95–2.37 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Close call, Birmingham won |
| Sheffield Utd 1–3 Blackburn | 1.51–1.58 | 37% · 24% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.