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12 of 12 matches with xG: 42 goals from 37.6 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton 3–0 Blackburn | 2.23–0.28 | 82% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Leicester 1–1 Millwall | 0.93–1.94 | 17% · 22% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Millwall had 61% |
| Charlton 2–1 Hull City | 1.11–0.94 | 39% · 30% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Charlton |
| West Brom 0–0 Ipswich | 1.30–1.07 | 42% · 28% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford | 2.30–0.85 | 70% · 18% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Sheffield Utd 2–3 Preston | 3.05–2.98 | 43% · 17% · 41% | Close call, Preston won |
| Birmingham 2–1 Bristol City | 1.76–1.13 | 52% · 23% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Norwich 1–1 Swansea | 1.71–1.20 | 49% · 24% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 4–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.28–0.97 | 67% · 19% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Stoke City 1–3 Portsmouth | 1.51–1.61 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| QPR 2–3 Derby | 2.48–1.13 | 67% · 18% · 16% | Won against the xG: Derby |
| Coventry 3–1 Wrexham | 1.58–1.25 | 45% · 25% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.