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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 33.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves 2–2 Blackburn | 2.04–0.82 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Wolves had 66% |
| Bolton 2–1 Preston | 1.10–1.12 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Close call, Bolton won |
| Bristol City 0–2 Millwall | 0.52–3.40 | 3% · 7% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Charlton 2–1 Derby | 0.97–1.00 | 34% · 31% · 35% | Close call, Charlton won |
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Lincoln | 2.23–0.57 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Norwich 1–2 West Brom | 2.96–1.85 | 61% · 17% · 23% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
| Portsmouth 1–3 QPR | 2.17–2.07 | 42% · 20% · 38% | Close call, QPR won |
| Stoke City 1–2 Swansea | 0.65–0.62 | 31% · 41% · 29% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Sheffield Utd 0–0 Birmingham | 0.29–0.77 | 13% · 43% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 2–1 Southampton | 0.81–1.71 | 18% · 24% · 59% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Burnley 2–2 West Ham | 2.33–1.33 | 60% · 19% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Burnley had 60% |
| Cardiff 1–1 Wrexham | 0.90–1.43 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.