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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 34.9 xG (1.00 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 2–2 Bristol City | 1.98–1.43 | 50% · 22% · 28% | Draw against the xG: Birmingham had 50% |
| Lincoln 1–3 Portsmouth | 2.32–1.21 | 62% · 19% · 19% | Won against the xG: Portsmouth |
| Millwall 3–0 Norwich | 2.69–1.02 | 73% · 15% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Blackburn 2–1 Middlesbrough | 0.91–1.43 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Derby 2–2 Cardiff | 1.62–1.98 | 32% · 22% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Preston 1–3 Wolves | 0.66–1.54 | 16% · 26% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| QPR 0–0 Bolton | 1.82–0.19 | 78% · 18% · 3% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 78% |
| Southampton 3–1 Stoke City | 2.32–0.93 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Swansea 0–0 Sheffield Utd | 0.57–1.46 | 14% · 27% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Utd had 59% |
| West Ham 1–2 Charlton | 2.84–0.62 | 83% · 12% · 6% | Won against the xG: Charlton |
| Wrexham 1–1 Watford | 1.92–0.65 | 68% · 21% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Wrexham had 68% |
| West Brom 3–1 Burnley | 1.63–1.18 | 48% · 25% · 28% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.