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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 38.3 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham 1–2 Birmingham | 1.42–1.62 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Derby 0–3 Swansea | 0.70–3.00 | 6% · 11% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Middlesbrough 3–1 West Brom | 2.55–1.32 | 64% · 18% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Wolves 4–1 Stoke City | 2.66–0.83 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| Blackburn 1–2 QPR | 0.92–1.34 | 26% · 28% · 46% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Bolton 0–1 Lincoln | 1.89–1.32 | 51% · 22% · 27% | Won against the xG: Lincoln |
| Bristol City 2–1 Portsmouth | 0.61–1.37 | 17% · 28% · 55% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Cardiff 2–2 Sheffield Utd | 2.24–1.28 | 59% · 20% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Cardiff had 59% |
| Charlton 1–0 Preston | 0.74–1.32 | 21% · 29% · 50% | Won against the xG: Charlton |
| Norwich 4–1 Burnley | 2.30–1.38 | 58% · 20% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Southampton 5–1 Millwall | 3.62–1.35 | 79% · 11% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Watford 1–1 West Ham | 1.60–0.89 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 54% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.