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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 28.7 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln 0–0 Blackburn | 1.46–0.24 | 69% · 25% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Lincoln had 69% |
| Portsmouth 0–2 Derby | 0.84–0.55 | 40% · 38% · 22% | Won against the xG: Derby |
| Preston 1–3 Bristol City | 1.91–1.78 | 42% · 22% · 37% | Close call, Bristol City won |
| Sheffield Utd 3–2 Bolton | 2.21–1.91 | 46% · 20% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Swansea 2–0 Watford | 2.71–0.88 | 76% · 14% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Ham 4–2 Wolves | 2.05–0.94 | 63% · 21% · 16% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Birmingham 1–1 Southampton | 1.55–1.02 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stoke City 1–0 Norwich | 0.58–1.44 | 15% · 27% · 58% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Millwall 0–3 Wrexham | 0.23–0.88 | 9% · 40% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| QPR 2–1 Cardiff | 2.09–0.60 | 72% · 18% · 9% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| West Brom 1–1 Charlton | 0.57–0.39 | 32% · 47% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough | 0.64–1.22 | 19% · 30% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 50% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.