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9 of 12 matches with xG: 21 goals from 21.9 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton 0–0 Northampton | 1.10–0.49 | 51% · 33% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Bolton had 51% |
| Lincoln 5–2 Peterborough | 2.16–1.44 | 54% · 21% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Blackpool 1–2 Bradford | 0.68–0.92 | 26% · 35% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Huddersfield 2–2 Exeter City | 1.40–0.92 | 48% · 27% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 3–0 Burton Albion | 2.17–0.50 | 76% · 17% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Reading 1–0 Stockport County | 0.74–1.57 | 18% · 25% · 57% | Won against the xG: Reading |
| Wycombe 2–0 AFC Wimbledon | 1.47–0.77 | 54% · 27% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
| Cardiff 1–0 Wigan | 0.94–0.24 | 53% · 38% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Port Vale 0–0 Barnsley | 0.91–3.53 | 6% · 9% · 85% | Draw against the xG: Barnsley had 85% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.