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10 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 33.9 xG (0.71 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln 2–1 Burton Albion | 1.37–0.91 | 48% · 28% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Huddersfield 1–0 Bradford | 2.54–0.25 | 87% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Plymouth 1–0 Luton | 3.41–0.97 | 83% · 10% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Cardiff 1–1 Stockport County | 1.00–1.11 | 32% · 30% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackpool 2–0 Northampton | 4.15–0.78 | 91% · 6% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Blackpool |
| Bolton 2–1 Leyton Orient | 1.62–0.66 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
| Doncaster 3–3 Wigan | 3.65–1.13 | 83% · 10% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Doncaster had 83% |
| Rotherham 1–1 AFC Wimbledon | 2.89–1.02 | 76% · 14% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Rotherham had 76% |
| Stevenage 1–1 Mansfield Town | 0.96–1.04 | 32% · 31% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wycombe 0–2 Peterborough | 2.39–2.02 | 47% · 19% · 34% | Close call, Peterborough won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.