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5 of 12 matches with xG: 13 goals from 12.2 xG (1.07 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool 1–2 Stockport County | 1.30–2.09 | 23% · 21% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Plymouth 1–1 Mansfield Town | 1.64–0.69 | 60% · 24% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Plymouth had 60% |
| Stevenage 1–0 Peterborough | 1.90–0.03 | 84% · 15% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Doncaster 3–0 Leyton Orient | 2.48–0.36 | 84% · 12% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Reading 2–2 Exeter City | 0.83–0.84 | 33% · 34% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.