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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 28.5 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Bolton | 1.60–1.15 | 48% · 25% · 27% | Won against the xG: Bolton |
| Bradford 1–0 Doncaster | 1.14–1.29 | 33% · 27% · 40% | Close call, Bradford won |
| Northampton 0–2 Reading | 1.63–1.14 | 49% · 25% · 27% | Won against the xG: Reading |
| Barnsley 3–1 Stevenage | 1.58–1.01 | 51% · 25% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Barnsley |
| Exeter City 0–4 Rotherham | 0.64–1.53 | 15% · 26% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Rotherham |
| Leyton Orient 0–1 Port Vale | 0.91–0.63 | 40% · 36% · 24% | Won against the xG: Port Vale |
| Luton 1–0 Blackpool | 1.18–0.33 | 58% · 32% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Mansfield Town 0–0 Wycombe | 0.51–1.79 | 10% · 21% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Wycombe had 69% |
| Peterborough 2–3 Huddersfield | 2.38–1.12 | 65% · 18% · 16% | Won against the xG: Huddersfield |
| Stockport County 2–1 Plymouth | 0.63–1.76 | 13% · 23% · 65% | Won against the xG: Stockport County |
| Wigan 0–1 Lincoln | 0.67–1.29 | 19% · 29% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Burton Albion 2–2 Cardiff | 2.10–0.50 | 75% · 18% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Burton Albion had 75% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.