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8 of 12 matches with xG: 20 goals from 23.6 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reading 3–2 Wycombe | 0.87–2.80 | 9% · 14% · 77% | Won against the xG: Reading |
| Stevenage 1–0 Huddersfield | 0.98–0.56 | 45% · 35% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Barnsley 3–3 AFC Wimbledon | 2.38–1.01 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Barnsley had 68% |
| Bradford 2–0 Peterborough | 3.84–0.59 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Exeter City 0–0 Northampton | 1.69–0.21 | 75% · 21% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Exeter City had 75% |
| Lincoln 1–1 Bolton | 3.44–0.93 | 84% · 10% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Lincoln had 84% |
| Cardiff 3–1 Luton | 2.03–0.76 | 67% · 20% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Leyton Orient 0–0 Mansfield Town | 0.83–0.70 | 36% · 36% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.