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12 of 12 matches with xG: 21 goals from 28.7 xG (0.73 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST 1–1 Gillingham | 1.35–0.50 | 58% · 28% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Accrington ST had 58% |
| Barnet 0–2 Fleetwood Town | 1.22–1.70 | 27% · 24% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Bristol Rovers 0–1 Harrogate Town | 3.09–1.18 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Won against the xG: Harrogate Town |
| Cambridge United 1–0 Cheltenham | 1.40–0.42 | 62% · 27% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Chesterfield 1–0 Barrow | 0.79–0.43 | 41% · 40% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Colchester 1–1 Tranmere | 0.96–0.64 | 42% · 35% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Grimsby 3–0 Crawley Town | 2.44–0.25 | 86% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Milton Keynes Dons 0–0 Oldham | 0.19–0.24 | 14% · 68% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Salford City 1–3 Crewe | 1.80–3.61 | 15% · 13% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Shrewsbury 0–0 Bromley | 0.42–1.13 | 14% · 33% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Bromley had 54% |
| Walsall 2–1 Swindon Town | 0.45–1.81 | 8% · 21% · 71% | Won against the xG: Walsall |
| Newport County 1–1 Notts County | 0.47–2.24 | 6% · 16% · 78% | Draw against the xG: Notts County had 78% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.