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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 30.7 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County 1–2 Salford City | 1.12–1.15 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Tranmere 4–0 Shrewsbury | 1.19–0.28 | 60% · 31% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Tranmere |
| Barrow 0–2 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.50–2.11 | 8% · 17% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Bromley 2–0 Barnet | 1.06–0.64 | 45% · 33% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Cheltenham 0–2 Chesterfield | 0.47–1.95 | 8% · 19% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Crewe 2–0 Accrington ST | 2.24–0.52 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Fleetwood Town 2–1 Bristol Rovers | 0.71–1.65 | 16% · 24% · 60% | Won against the xG: Fleetwood Town |
| Gillingham 1–0 Walsall | 0.89–0.80 | 35% · 34% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Harrogate Town 3–3 Grimsby | 1.63–0.96 | 53% · 25% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Harrogate Town had 53% |
| Oldham 1–1 Colchester | 4.59–0.27 | 97% · 2% · 0% | Draw against the xG: Oldham had 97% |
| Swindon Town 3–2 Cambridge United | 1.32–0.58 | 55% · 29% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Crawley Town 1–2 Newport County | 2.27–1.78 | 49% · 20% · 31% | Close call, Newport County won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.