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11 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 31.5 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester 0–2 Bromley | 1.75–0.72 | 62% · 23% · 15% | Won against the xG: Bromley |
| Crewe 3–1 Shrewsbury | 2.05–0.87 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Barnet 2–2 Milton Keynes Dons | 2.21–0.47 | 78% · 16% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Barnet had 78% |
| Barrow 2–2 Grimsby | 0.70–1.96 | 12% · 20% · 67% | Draw against the xG: Grimsby had 67% |
| Bristol Rovers 0–1 Gillingham | 1.82–1.52 | 45% · 23% · 32% | Close call, Gillingham won |
| Chesterfield 3–3 Accrington ST | 3.02–1.85 | 62% · 16% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Chesterfield had 62% |
| Crawley Town 2–1 Fleetwood Town | 1.42–1.02 | 46% · 27% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Crawley Town |
| Harrogate Town 0–1 Oldham | 0.34–1.64 | 7% · 23% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Salford City 0–0 Cambridge United | 0.37–0.46 | 21% · 51% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swindon Town 2–1 Tranmere | 1.92–0.98 | 59% · 22% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Newport County 2–4 Walsall | 1.16–3.24 | 10% · 12% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.