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12 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 35.0 xG (0.74 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST 3–1 Bristol Rovers | 1.87–0.93 | 59% · 22% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Accrington ST |
| Bromley 2–1 Barrow | 2.78–0.26 | 89% · 9% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Cambridge United 0–0 Barnet | 0.41–1.01 | 15% · 35% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fleetwood Town 1–1 Swindon Town | 0.97–1.43 | 26% · 27% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Grimsby 0–1 Chesterfield | 1.36–0.92 | 47% · 28% · 25% | Won against the xG: Chesterfield |
| Milton Keynes Dons 2–0 Salford City | 1.33–1.83 | 28% · 23% · 49% | Won against the xG: Milton Keynes Dons |
| Notts County 1–1 Harrogate Town | 2.46–0.49 | 81% · 14% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Notts County had 81% |
| Oldham 0–0 Crewe | 1.68–2.27 | 29% · 20% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Crewe had 51% |
| Tranmere 3–2 Cheltenham | 1.58–1.50 | 40% · 24% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Tranmere |
| Walsall 0–2 Colchester | 0.93–1.40 | 25% · 27% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Shrewsbury 1–0 Newport County | 1.83–0.86 | 60% · 22% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Gillingham 2–2 Crawley Town | 2.66–2.20 | 49% · 18% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.