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12 of 12 matches with xG: 39 goals from 35.8 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby 1–2 Tranmere | 1.45–0.81 | 52% · 27% · 21% | Won against the xG: Tranmere |
| Accrington ST 1–0 Oldham | 0.69–0.65 | 32% · 39% · 29% | Close call, Accrington ST won |
| Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Fleetwood Town | 2.45–0.35 | 84% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Barnet 1–1 Harrogate Town | 2.10–1.07 | 61% · 20% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Barnet had 61% |
| Bristol Rovers 0–1 Notts County | 2.56–0.16 | 89% · 10% · 1% | Won against the xG: Notts County |
| Cambridge United 2–1 Crewe | 3.01–0.54 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Chesterfield 1–2 Swindon Town | 1.35–1.96 | 26% · 22% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Colchester 2–0 Cheltenham | 2.39–0.84 | 72% · 17% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Salford City 4–3 Crawley Town | 2.50–1.97 | 50% · 19% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Shrewsbury 3–3 Gillingham | 1.26–1.94 | 25% · 22% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Gillingham had 53% |
| Walsall 3–1 Bromley | 2.64–1.15 | 69% · 16% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Newport County 2–2 Barrow | 0.89–1.11 | 29% · 31% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.